Analysis: Market Outlook

*DJ Philadelphia Fed Sep Business Index 3.8 Vs Aug -12.7 
*DJ Philadelphia Fed Sep Price Paid 31.5 Vs Aug 57.5 
*DJ US Conference Board: Aug Leading Index -0.5%

*DJ US Jobless Claims +10K To 455K In Sep 13 Wk; Survey -10K 
*DJ US Sep 6 Week Continuing Claims -55K to 3,478,000 

MS and Wachovia about to start serious and advanced merger talks - CNBC

European power and gas traders have lost confidence in US investment bank Morgan Stanley and are shying away from engaging in deals with the Wall Street major, market sources told Platts on Thursday. Morgan Stanley is the one of two remaining independent Wall Street investment banks, next to Goldman Sachs, after the fire-sales of banks Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. 

Swiss National Bank leaves target range for the three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25–3.25%

Next time someone asks "what good a would a Fed rate cut do?" the right answer is "what harm would it do if they do not?" and pull out yesterdays headlines, price action and negative yields. As usual, the global central banks are a day late and $247 billion dollars short in addressing the issue. Having said that SP is +16 as of this writing. Cycle guys get all lathered up this time of year as the autumnal equinox (9/22) has marked some major turning points in financial markets. One can only hope. Amazingly, the bullish divergence is still in play as yesterdays deeper new low was still not confirmed by 9day RSI (chart). Another potenial divergence is the AAII Bull/Bear index. It has made higher lows with each subsequent lower low in price. I'm not willing to hang my hat on that either one but it is interesting. Crude and nat gas have quietly rallied significantly over the past two sessions. 

The change of tide in Asia trading was indeed very astonishing, as the STI, Hang Seng and Shanghai markets were very bearish, till the combined central bank effort to revive the market's liquidity towards the final 3 hours of market trading. 

BOJ also interestingly for the first time in history became a lender. For details on the lending, go to: http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/release/adhoc/un0809a.pdf 

In addition, my trading calls as mentioned on my previous post will commence from next Monday, as there are some permissions and arrangements that has to be done with my sponsor. So do stay around next Monday.